A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
